Monthly Review

Race2Profit Monthly Review: April 2014

86.76 Points Profit in April

During the month we had 13 selections, 8 winners and 5 losers, for an overall profit of a pleasing 86.76 points and a strike rate of 61.54%. This represents a very positive upturn from the general winter performance especially given the fact that we had only two weeks and a bit to work with in April.

Hopefully this is now a small turning point towards reaching the high profitability levels we have had in the past.

You may recall from the last newsletter, we said the following:

“After this break we have absolute faith that our normal service will be resumed as we move into spring, and then onwards into summer and autumn. This, we feel sure will improve those investment figures even further!”

The two weeks plus of April hopefully have gone some way towards removing any disappointments at the overall winter performance, which whilst it was far from drastic, it certainly fell short of expectations and our usual high standards.

We believe we can now look forward to another highly profitable summer. We both at least are greatly looking forward to it anyway!

Some interesting stats

There are many, many myths abounding in racing circles and even some relating to R2P.

Odds–on selections

It seems to be a prevailing myth perpetuated by those allegedly ‘in the know’ that ‘you will never make a profit from betting on odds-on selections’ (ie. those below 2.00 or 1/1 in price).

Well now we have done the analysis and the question is therefore… are these people correct, specifically with regards to R2P?

We have used level stakes for this in order to make comparisons and some of the key points easier to understand:

A little over 25% of our selections have a Betfair SP of below 2.00. The strike rate is approximately 65% and they have made 14.28 % profit to date across the full 24 month period. Even allowing for a typical 5% Betfair commission rate we shape-up pretty well with over 13 % ROI.

So the bottom-line is – don’t always believe the so-called and often self-styled ‘experts’.

More interesting stats next month.

Continuing Thanks to all Subscribers

We make no apologies for including this paragraph again.

With the extremely mixed fortunes we have experienced in the last few months we would both like to place on record yet again, our sincere thanks to all those of you who have decided to continue to support us and especially those who have sent supportive comments in emails. Your kindness and faith in us is, as always very much appreciated.

Website www.race2profit.co.uk

Just another reminder that there are two ways of accessing the selections. Should your email not arrive by 8.30 (it is never sent out after this time and is always sent even if there is no selection) then use the website as a backup. If you are unable, for whatever reason to access it, then please email us and we will inform you of the daily selection(s) by return.

Finally…

Here’s to another highly profitable month ahead. We are both excited by what promises to be the start of another good summer.

John and John – Race2Profit
Race2Profit Monthly Review: March 2014

8.08 Points Loss in February

During the month, we had 23 selections, 8 winners and 15 losers, for an overall loss of 8.08 points and a strike rate of 34.78%.

However this doesn’t tell the whole story of what turned out to be quite a bizarre month, results-wise.  It was certainly a ‘game of two halves’, to use a football analogy.

The first half of the month, from the 1st to the 14th accompanied by some of the worst spells of weather (in terms of wetness) I can recall, was quite dreadful.  As we entered the 2nd half of the month we were actually more than 55 points in arrears, but then a sudden upturn during the next two weeks in both the weather and the results, saw us almost turn it around into a profit situation, but ultimately just failed on the last day to do so.  In that second two week period we did manage to garner more than 47 points though and we are now as confident as it is possible to be that both the exceptional weather and the exceptional bad run of results is well behind us.

We know that some of you of asked us why we continued to endeavour to make selections in the ongoing wet spell and the answer to that question is simply that it is easy with hindsight to say that we should have held back a little, but to be honest, we have no of telling absolutely whether or not it was actually the prevailing conditions or just some strange coincidence.  And without the luxury of knowing that for sure, we had no choice but to select using our tried and tested methodology and hope that we were doing the right thing.

Hopefully March should see normal service resumed – at last.  We, as I am sure you all will too, will be more than glad to see the back of this truly dreadful wet winter (and not simply just from a racing point of view!) – the worst for over 200 years apparently.

 

A Big Thank You!

With the extremely mixed fortunes we have experienced in the last few months we would both like to place on record our sincere thanks to all those of you who have decided to continue to support us, and for those who have sent supportive comments in emails.  You are too numerous to mention personally, but you know who you are and it is very much appreciated.

 

Cheltenham

Tuesday 11th March sees the beginning of the annual extravaganza known as the Cheltenham Festival which lasts for four days, ending on Friday 14th.   For those of you unaware, this is the highlight of the National Hunt (jump racing) calendar (with the possible exception of the Grand National at Aintree next month) and promises four days of absolutely top class racing to get stuck into.

Just out of interest at last year’s festival, R2P had 8 selections, 6 of which won, for a profit of 75 points!  Obviously we cannot guarantee similar results this time around but we will try our best.

 

Website www.race2profit.co.uk

How many of you know that the daily selections are updated and appear on our website every day?  We are surprised to note that quite a few people are still not aware of this.

So each day, there are two ways of accessing the selections.  Should your email not arrive by 8.30 (it is never sent out after this time and is always sent even if there is no selection) then use the website as a backup.  If you are unable, for whatever reason to access it, then please email us and we will inform you by return of the daily selection(s).

 

April Break

Just a reminder of what it says on our website.

We will take approximately 3-4 weeks holiday per year depending on how the dates fall.

These will be over the Christmas / New Year period and also the first two weeks of April each year (approximately), to partially avoid the worst period of the year where tipping is concerned.

The next break will therefore be:

Monday 31st March 2014 to Saturday 12th April 2014 inclusive.  Next selection day Monday 14th April 2014.

Please note that any email correspondence after Sunday 30th March until Sunday 13th April will be extremely limited.  For any general enquiries please contact Canonbury Publishing.

 

Finally…

Good luck to you all once again for the coming month.  We sincerely hope that this month will see things back to ‘normal’.  As always, we have high hopes!

John and John – Race2Profit

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Race2Profit Monthly Review: February 2014

10.75 Points Profit in January

During the month, we had 23 selections, 12 winners and 11 losers, for an overall profit of 10.75 points and a strike rate of 52.00%.

January has turned out to be a rather strange month in terms of results because whilst the 23 selections slightly bettered our overall strike rate with 12 winners and 11 losers it was the overall prices that were disappointing and whilst there were a few slightly higher-priced ones, alas they almost invariably were the losing ones.  However it is welcome news that December’s performance – our worst month in 21 months – appears to now be behind us and although we have made only a small profit, January 2014 has at least seen us turnaround our fortunes and has also proved better than January last year, our previous and only other losing month (with -17 points).

We realise that it’s not much profit to work with, but as we said last month the National Hunt season invariably throws up all kinds of challenges and we would reiterate that we do not choose our selections on price,  although we do have some price limitations at either end of the spectrum.  (Interestingly, there was a runner at 1.03 SP on Betfair a few days ago)  In terms of trends we are well overdue one or two bigger priced winners and it would be great if these were 12 pointers, as we have managed frequently in the past.  A quick look at the full 21 months results will show the large differences in profit performances across the different months.

We do understand the frustrations and we do share them, especially those of the newer subscribers and we would both like to place on record a big ‘thank you’ to all those of you who have remained with us through the leaner times.  We really do appreciate it, and we are confident – despite all racing’s many uncertainties – that you will ultimately be rewarded for ‘sticking with us’.

 

Favourites

There continues to be several myths floating around too, regarding favourites.  Whilst we know a good number of our selections are favourites they are not all favourites.  Many of our cracking wins – especially though the spring/summer/autumn months were 2nd and 3rd favourites.   Also, and this is spouted from all corners of the racing world, the comment ‘you will never make money from backing favourites’ is a total myth.  It is true to say however, that most people won’t, but some people we know do, usually those who have been around racing for decades and have ‘cracked it’, but they are very selective and they still do have some price considerations before finally striking their bets, even from those favourites which are often ‘odds–on’ ie. below 2.00.

So beware of broad generalisations.  All is not as it may first appear.

 

Work in Progress

Our usual ‘division of labour’ continues on and although we both overlap somewhat, JH still largely fronts the day to day administration, emails and customer liaison, whilst JU is still beavering away in the background with on-going analysis and research.  We can’t report any specific conclusions YET, but what we will say is that for anything to be even remotely considered as an extra potential avenue of profit, it must have a minimum of a full 12 months proven performance.  We do have an interesting ongoing piece of research currently which at the moment seems to be bringing positive results and this will continue to be monitored.  We will of course keep you up to date with any further developments, but progress is inevitably slow and please bear in mind that it takes an inordinate amount of time to reach any firm conclusions.

Also, we all need to understand the relationship between strike rate (number of winners vs. number of selections) and average prices.  It is very important to recognise that the two are always connected over the medium to long term – ALWAYS, so any technique which finds better priced winners will inevitably result in a smaller percentage of winners and of course longer losing runs. The added factor of differentiating between flat and National Hunt (racing over the jumps) (almost like two separate sports really) is an endless additional challenge of course.  Finding approaches which achieve continuous profits within that conundrum is of course the eternal challenge, especially with a ‘set and forget’ service like R2P.  But please be assured we will not rest on our laurels and every day is indeed, a ‘work in progress’.

 

Finally…

Good luck to you all once again for the coming month.  We sincerely hope that as the National Hunt season wears on, that we can bring you some higher priced, juicy winners.  And with the Cheltenham Festival only just over a month away (we will bring you a preview of that in next month’s newsletter) we have high hopes!

 

Onwards and upwards yet again!

John and John – Race2Profit

 

Race2Profit Monthly Review: January 2014

55.86 Points Loss in December

During the month, we had 25 selections, 8 winners and 17 losers, for an overall loss of 55.86 points and a strike rate of 32.00%.  However, don’t forget that the overall profit position is 174.99 points in around three and a half months!

In the past 3½ months (from the original launch date of 13 September), we have still averaged around 50 points per calendar month on variable stakes.  Had those profits been achieved in a consistent manner; eg. two steps forward and one step back to provide a steady growth then I do believe that everyone would have been more than happy with that but obviously it is just the way those profits have been achieved that tends to give a slightly negative cast to the current situation.

The biggest problem we have faced in the last few weeks seems to have been the lower odds available across the board, nothing to do with the number of subscribers, I hastily add, simply the relatively poor quality of opposition against the more-fancied animals which seems to have been a predominant factor in the markets during these first weeks of the National Hunt season.  Let us reiterate that for the avoidance of doubt, we do not choose our selections on price, despite what may seem to be the case of late.  This has been unfortunate, but as with all things will even itself out over time.

We understand everyone’s frustrations with the present state of affairs and please believe that we feel it even more than you all do.

 

The General Ups and Downs of Racing and Investing

The first point to make here is probably an obvious one and that is that there can never be any certainties in racing.  Ever.

The last month has been a salutary lesson for us all in coming to terms with that fact.  After 18 of the previous 19 months of being in profit, we are suddenly faced with quite a loss.  Not a substantial loss relatively speaking, we have had a far greater number of points profit in a month, than this loss on many occasions, which does put it into perspective.

Whilst we sympathise deeply with all those who joined us in the latest batch and whilst we are deeply disappointed with December’s results, we are far from despondent overall.  Simply because we have had a difficult period does not mean that this will necessarily continue ad infinitum.  We have had bad patches like this in the past and so we are due a huge turnaround very soon and there is no reason why that should not be January 2014.

Also, we seem to have had several people questioning the selections lately (maybe understandably under the circumstances) but please rest assured that we are not doing anything different to what we have done throughout the whole of the time that the service has been in testing and live-running.  The worst thing we could possibly do, we believe, is to panic and try to change the way we do things.

Indeed an indifferent run at some point was only to be expected considering the fantastic results in September and October.  We felt very nervous about the way it was all going during those two months because we knew it was totally impossible to consistently maintain those impressive figures.  With the strike rate and the ROI so high, something just had to give eventually.

Please also remember that our performance over the 20 months, in Investment terms is far, far better than the interest rates of ANY bank or financial organisations you may care to name!

 

Betting Banks

We are aware that some people will now be betting with depleted banks.  At the higher end it is not so much of an issue to continue betting in the same proportion as you always have done.  However we are aware that some people, for example those who started with relatively smaller banks may be a little concerned as to how to continue without taking huge risks with their remaining funds.

In this scenario, by far the best strategy we believe, is to use a consistent 1% of bank per point on variable stakes, thereby adjusting the stakes automatically as the bank moves up or down each day.  This ensures a consistent approach day on day and reduces / increases stakes only when appropriate to do so rather than sticking to the larger stakes in the event of a losing run for example.

 

Staking

We would like to repeat this section from last month as it is extremely important.  We still get lots of questions regarding staking and whether or not it is prudent to be selective re. certain recommended bets.  We cannot emphasise enough that it is really important, that you make sure you bet on each selection.

ALL of the staking levels used are profitable in their own right over the whole of the 19 months research and development and live running.  All long-term trends have ‘mini-trends’ within much shorter periods that go against the main trend and it is folly to take the short term approach when assessing whether or not to bet.  You should not exclude any of our selections because there is no doubt that you WILL lose out over the long term by doing this.

 

And finally… Good luck to you all once again for the coming month.  We sincerely hope to bring you a much more positive review in 3o days’ time!

Onwards and upwards again!

John and John – Race2Profit

 

 

 

Race2Profit Monthly Review: November 2013

119 Points Profit in October!

Our parting shot in last month’s newsletter was ‘Let us hope that by next time this month, you are reading an equally positive October newsletter!’

Well apart from an indifferent final week, I think we can safely say that has come to pass. It actually makes us wonder what on earth we were worried about in the first place. But overall we still think caution was the correct policy. As it turned out we were perhaps a little too cautious, but hindsight is great and with 119 points profit for the month, we are certainly not complaining. 119 points is actually identical to September’s return too.

The weather was quite kind to us though, with very little rain in the early part of the month and rain is usually the biggest lottery-maker in flat racing. Turning the ‘going’ from ‘good’ to ‘heavy’ in the space of a few hours is not unknown at this time of year and that can often be the death knell for many a horse’s chances.

So we are well into the second full month of live-running of R2P and a very satisfactory 7 weeks or so it has been with a total to date of 187 points profit to variable stakes and around 11 points to level stakes. However whilst we are optimistic for the future continuance of a profitable service, maybe we have become a victim of our own success and set expectations amongst you good people slightly too high?! Hopefully realism will come to the fore and you will all accept that profit probably will not continue at these levels forever. You should still see excellent profits long term of course, but we do ask that you give us a little leeway as we enter the next calendar month.

One thing you can be sure of is that we will not stop striving for perfection, as difficult as that is to achieve.

During the month, we had 19 selections, 10 winners and 9 losses for an overall profit of 119.44 points, a strike rate of 52.63% and an ROI (return on investment) of 91.25%.

All of which neatly brings us to…

The Perennial Early Price versus SP debate

We have had some interesting conversations with Betfair management during the last week in trying to get to the bottom of how placing bets at SP affects the currently available price on Betfair at any given point in time. The ultimate answer is not at all!

Sometimes, especially in the last week or two, we have watched the available price plummet immediately after sending out the email in a morning and began to wonder, is this our subscribers ‘lumping on’ and affecting it so radically? Well ‘no’ is the answer if, as I believe, the majority are placing bets to SP anyway. This has zero effect on available odds, says Mr. Betfair – and who are we to argue? It is all of course thrown into the melting pot immediately the race begins, which allows them to calculate an accurate SP position, but then and only then are the bets to SP considered.

We both of us, monitor the odds constantly and especially near the ‘off’ in our races and neither of us have noticed a huge differential in last second odds, to those of SP.

However, one thing that has now come into sharper focus is the fact that the EP is actually meaningless because the market has so little liquidity at 7.30am especially on the lower grade races. At this stage, one bet of any size can have a dramatic effect, either positively or negatively.

We have had a lot of questions from subscribers as to why we specify SP bets and many more asking if it is OK if they take an early price as they feel that fits in better with their own preferences. We do not wish to dictate to you the way you should be betting but we are merely giving you the benefit of our experience, having monitored the differentials now for around 18 months.

So, we have decided to make a small change to the service instructions and in future say that each individual is free to make his / her own decision as to whether or not they take early price or SP! Of course you always had that choice anyway, but now it is official. You may take either!

To this end we will from now on, cease recording EPs on the daily email and just quote the SP each day.

One small proviso though… our results will still continue to be recorded at SP as there is no fairer or more equitable way of doing it – that we can think of anyway. It is the only price that is formally recorded by Betfair and Timeform and therefore no ‘cheating’ can take place on our part! But it will always be a case of ‘swings and roundabouts’, sometimes you will take early price and it will be vindicated by a smaller SP and vice versa and sometimes you will opt for SP and that will be the correct decision (or not). At least this way we are all responsible for our own profit / loss situation and the debates will end once and for all.

Make Sure You Use the Race2Profit Website

We make no apology for repeating this section of the newsletter from last month.

Whilst the easy-to-answer-if-you-look-in-the-right-place questions have diminished considerably, there are still some of you who do not read the website before emailing. We realise that although sometimes it is inevitable, things can be inadvertently missed (I do it myself all the time!) and also it is often easier to send a two-line email than to search through a morass of information, but please do try to check the website first, before emailing.

Please may we ask; that if you have not yet taken the opportunity to look at the site fully, you do so at your earliest opportunity?

However, I would stress that we are always pleased to hear from you, and try to answer any questions you have as quickly as possible.

The ‘Resources’ and ‘Past results’ sections are an extremely important part of the service overall and whilst like us, you may be very busy, it may well be worth you taking all the information on board as it may be even quicker than waiting for an email response on occasions. If you think there is any important information missing from there that others may benefit from knowing, please get in touch.

As we keep saying, we do welcome your communications at all times.

Ongoing Research
We have no intention of resting on our laurels and are constantly seeking out new and innovative ways to add extra value to our current level of success. Unfortunately a number of ‘misguided’ people who believe themselves to be racing ‘experts’ have some weird and wonderful ideas relating to how people like ourselves actually operate. Some think that we have dozens of ‘contacts’ who we ring around every evening and early morning and simply sit back and use this ‘inside information’! (Don’t tell anyone. but one of us is a leading ‘horse clairvoyant’ and is able to read the minds of various ‘nags’ before they actually run ). Whilst others seem to think they can second-guess things, such as the clever person who posted, with indecent haste and so laughably, on a review site that he had cracked ‘how we find our selections’ and that for less than a tenner you could buy the very same method and use that – hence saving your monthly subscription.

We note that he and most of the other ‘clever’ people out there have gone very quiet lately. (You could of course even save the cost of that tenner anyway – by buying a pin which you can use blindfold with your daily newspaper). We have taken the conscious decision not to comment personally on such sites ourselves as we would far rather use our time more constructively to further our research with our ultimate aim being to become the ‘very best’ advisory service available – thus benefitting us all. A number of you, many of who have been kind enough to send us lovely testimonials, already seem to feel it’s the best anyway! Well, that’s all down to individual opinions, but thank you anyway, both for the kind comments and for agreeing to allow us to publish them.

Against this background, I am happy to confirm that day in, day out we are constantly researching and will do continue to do so. We have a couple of very exciting new angles in the research phase. Obviously we cannot give too much away but one is currently providing a 67% return on investment (ROI) and the other, even higher than that. But, as well as recognising that it takes an inordinate amount of time to work on these avenues of research, it is also important to recognise that we would never contemplate considering anything commercially which has not been subjected to an absolute minimum test period of at least 12 months. But there is plenty of incentive for us to continue this work and hopefully this will be to our mutual benefit in time to come.

Hopefully also, we have proved thus far that we are nothing but transparent and ‘straight’ with you but we are acutely aware that we are evolving and learning ourselves (hence us raising the ‘Early Price vs. Starting Price’ issue) and like everyone else on the planet we certainly don’t know all there is to know. However, when we say we have spent many thousands of hours researching, monitoring, testing and tweaking then we don’t say it for effect, we say it because it’s true. You never get anything for nothing in life, be it in horse racing or anything else for that matter.

… and finally…

The Remainder of 2013
Watch out for days with more than one selection throughout November and December and also be aware of the fact that there may be slightly more than the average number of days with no selection. It’s just the time of year, but it will all balance itself out!

Please do let us know how you are doing with the service at [email protected]

Onwards and upwards!

John and John

Race2Profit

 

 

Race2Profit Monthly Review: October 2013

119 Points Profit in September!

September was an excellent month overall and especially the latter part – after the launch on Friday the 13th September.  Who said it was unlucky?!

With a total profit of just over 119 points, 68 of which were achieved during the live running of the service we hope you are enjoying some good profits to increase your betting bank.

We love to hear how you are doing – please do let us know at [email protected] )

While we are both very happy that the results have continued to echo the success of our many months of research and live testing, please rest assured we will never ‘rest on our laurels’ and will always be looking to improve and perfect the service in any way we can for you.

And of course, your suggestions are always welcome in this respect.

During the month, we had 21 selections, 10 winners and 11 losses for an overall profit of 119.11 points, a strike rate of 47.62% and an ROI (return on investment) of 60.77%.

We’ve been keeping a close eye on starting prices and I’m pleased to say that our membership levels are not affecting them.  But we always promised we would limit our membership numbers and we are men of our words.   So we are closing the doors to new members right now.   Well done for getting on-board in time!

Looking forward…

 

Why it Pays to be Cautious in October

Whilst we managed to secure a profit on the variable staking plan last October, we just wanted to remind you that October is considered (along with April – when we normally take a 2 week break) to be one of the trickiest periods in the calendar for racing tipsters and punters (investors) alike.

We will however, approach it with our usual positivity but please do bear in mind that there may be a few more ‘no-bet’ days than usual due to these circumstances.  As ‘racing investors’ (which you hopefully see yourselves as now) we will not select any horse about which we may have major doubts and will not shy away from blank days in order to protect your profits.

Many of you will already know that a lot of ‘high-end’ professional services (with price-tags to match) may select as few as 1 to 3 horses a week – they are that selective.  So, please bear with us on this… your patience will be rewarded.

IMPORTANT: to make sure we defend against any tricky conditions during October, we strongly recommend that you don’t increase your stakes at this time.

While you may well have enjoyed profits during September and we would normally suggest increasing stakes as your bank increases…in October it is best to be prudent and keep those profits safe.

Another good tip for maximising your profits (and minimising losses) is to make sure you follow the variable staking plan instructions. As you know by now it’s easy to follow and it really comes into its own when conditions are more challenging.

 

Make Sure You Use the Race2Profit Website

We are always pleased to hear from you, and try to answer any questions you have as quickly as possible.  However we have noticed that on a few occasions, the required answers could have been found on the website.

Please may we ask; that if you have not yet taken the opportunity to look at the site fully, you do so at your earliest opportunity?

The ‘Resources’ and ‘Past results’ sections are an extremely important part of the service overall and whilst like us, you may be very busy, it may well be worth you taking all the information on board as it may be even quicker than waiting for an email response on occasions.  If you think there is any important information missing from there that others may benefit from knowing, please get in touch.

As I say, we welcome your communications at all times.

 

Why PROFIT is everything!

Whilst this may seem obvious to all of us, it would seem that some people are maybe a little confused on this issue.

Some of the more shall we say, errr negative comments we have had so far are the following observations from subscribers:

‘There are more losers than winners!

It is a very, very rare service indeed that has more winners than losers.  We do come very close however with a strike rate of just under 50% over 17 months.

I never bet on favourites!’

All our research proves that those favourites that we do select make a profit overall and therefore add considerably to the bottom-line winnings.

‘I never bet on odds-on shots!’

Of course no-one will make a profit by blindly betting on odds-on shots.  We include them because in total they contribute to overall profits and to your winnings. They may be ‘bread and butter’ but we have meticulously researched them and they would not be included unless we knew that they were profitable overall.

‘I don’t like losing runs!’

Obviously neither do we, but unfortunately it is a fact of racing life and we all need to reflect on the fact that average odds and win/lose ratios are inextricably connected.  We COULD have devised a method that only has maybe 1 in 3 or just 1 in 4 winners, but obviously with higher average odds.  So you would maybe still make a profit BUT the down side would be an occasional losing run of say 15, 20 or maybe even more.  We cannot ‘have it both ways’, I’m afraid to say.

So – in summary, why does any of the above really matter at all – just so long as we MAKE A PROFIT for you?!

After all, we are not in the business of being clever and trying to find winners that no-one else can find, we are in this simply to make you a profit.

And just to put things into perspective, our ROI levels, compared to say a high street bank or building society are massively greater – there is simply no comparison and we are more than 20 times higher.  Our on-going aim is to endeavour to keep it that way.

Good luck to you all in the forthcoming month.  Let us hope that by next time this month, you are reading an equally positive October newsletter!

John and John

Race2Profit